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Here's a thought provoking article that comprehends the magnitude and seriousness of the FP while proposing a novel solution:
SETI and the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis
www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php
by Steven Soter
If civilizations exist in our galaxy with levels of technology at least equal to our own, we might be able to detect some of them using radio telescopes. And if civilizations exist with technologies far in advance of our own, we might expect them to have colonized millions of habitable worlds in the Milky Way, and even to have visited our own planet. Yet there is no evidence in the astronomical, geological, archaeological, or historical records that extraterrestrial civilizations exist or that visitors from other worlds have ever been to Earth. Does that mean, as some have concluded, that ours is the only civilization in the galaxy? Or could there be a natural self-regulating mechanism that limits the intensive colonization of other worlds?
Entire Article:
www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php
SETI and the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis
www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php
by Steven Soter
If civilizations exist in our galaxy with levels of technology at least equal to our own, we might be able to detect some of them using radio telescopes. And if civilizations exist with technologies far in advance of our own, we might expect them to have colonized millions of habitable worlds in the Milky Way, and even to have visited our own planet. Yet there is no evidence in the astronomical, geological, archaeological, or historical records that extraterrestrial civilizations exist or that visitors from other worlds have ever been to Earth. Does that mean, as some have concluded, that ours is the only civilization in the galaxy? Or could there be a natural self-regulating mechanism that limits the intensive colonization of other worlds?
Entire Article:
www.astrobio.net/news/modules.php
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Re: SETI and the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis
Wed, October 19, 2005 - 1:09 PMIf I read his argument correctly, he was essentially saying that:
i) If intelligences capable of developing apocalyptic technologies continue to be colonistic they will eventually suicide themselves. His assumption is that colonistic behaviour is both aggressive and irrevocably conflict inducing.
ii) If intelligences capable of developing apocalyptic technologies cease to be colonistic they may survive, but at the cost of remaining local to their solar system of origin.
iii) Thus, a selectional effect is in place here, where the only true *advanced* intelligences that can exist in the Universe are a) non-colonistic and b) local to their solar system of origin.
He admits, however, that his argument is potentially non-exclusive; all it would take is just one successful civ to overcome this risk and the Galaxy is colonized in short-order. Moreover, a successful colonization attempt via Von Neumann probes would solve this problem, also.
And his argument is largely a sociological one. Using terms like "colonization" and "aggression" is a risky proposition at best when trying to infer the motives of extremely advanced intelligences living in socio-economic conditions radically different from our own (Kardashev civ types come to mind, as does Post-Singularity intelligences).
That being said, his mechanism for a Darwinian selectional effect against interstellar colonization is a provocative one and it's provided me with much food for thought. -
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Re: SETI and the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis
Wed, October 19, 2005 - 1:45 PMI disagree that a radio telescope several light years out would detect any spurious radio transmissions. We can't with our level of technology just because we don't have receivers sensitive enough for the power we put out there. Also because of the noise in our system right now. THe noise that we generate.
It is all well and good to think we should. But I would like to see some science based facts with real numbers form our receivers that shows that we can pick up the type of signals that we put out there. Right now I don't think the facts show this. -
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Re: SETI and the Cosmic Quarantine Hypothesis
Thu, October 20, 2005 - 3:36 PMAlexander Bell created a machine that could transmit messages via light. Who’s to say an Alien society would not have chosen it as their preferred more of information transmission? Such a society would place less emphasis on radio then we would have?
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