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Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the Apparent Failure of SETI, by Milan M. Cirkovic, Robert J. Bradbury.
www.astrobiology.com/news/viewsr.html
[as an aside, Milan is a friend of mine, and I was fortunate enough to be asked to critique an earlier draft of this paper]
Abstract:
Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi's paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by SETI projects so far. The need for such reevaluation is fueled not only by the failure of searches thus far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies, which have remained largely ignored in SETI practice. As an example of the new approach, we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature gradients in the Milky Way on the spatial distribution of hypothetical advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While, obviously, properties of such communities and their sociological and technological preferences are entirely unknown, we assume that (1) they operate in agreement with the known laws of physics, and (2) that at some point they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are specific conclusions of practical interest to be drawn from coupling of these reasonable assumptions with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the Galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. This can also be regarded as a possible generalization of the Galactic Habitable Zone, concept currently much investigated in astrobiology.
www.astrobiology.com/news/viewsr.html
www.astrobiology.com/news/viewsr.html
[as an aside, Milan is a friend of mine, and I was fortunate enough to be asked to critique an earlier draft of this paper]
Abstract:
Motivated by recent developments impacting our view of Fermi's paradox (absence of extraterrestrials and their manifestations from our past light cone), we suggest a reassessment of the problem itself, as well as of strategies employed by SETI projects so far. The need for such reevaluation is fueled not only by the failure of searches thus far, but also by great advances recently made in astrophysics, astrobiology, computer science and future studies, which have remained largely ignored in SETI practice. As an example of the new approach, we consider the effects of the observed metallicity and temperature gradients in the Milky Way on the spatial distribution of hypothetical advanced extraterrestrial intelligent communities. While, obviously, properties of such communities and their sociological and technological preferences are entirely unknown, we assume that (1) they operate in agreement with the known laws of physics, and (2) that at some point they typically become motivated by a meta-principle embodying the central role of information-processing; a prototype of the latter is the recently suggested Intelligence Principle of Steven J. Dick. There are specific conclusions of practical interest to be drawn from coupling of these reasonable assumptions with the astrophysical and astrochemical structure of the Galaxy. In particular, we suggest that the outer regions of the Galactic disk are most likely locations for advanced SETI targets, and that intelligent communities will tend to migrate outward through the Galaxy as their capacities of information-processing increase, for both thermodynamical and astrochemical reasons. This can also be regarded as a possible generalization of the Galactic Habitable Zone, concept currently much investigated in astrobiology.
www.astrobiology.com/news/viewsr.html
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Sun, June 12, 2005 - 9:12 PMOur knowledge of Physics is very limited. We have trouble answering some very basic questions using the Physics of today. So why does another planet that is more advanced have to follow the rules we know today?
Why does any civilization need to follow out logic? We are still learning a lot about the brain and thought. For example there is a new theory that the belief that some people have in the existence of a God may be genetic. If out thoughts on basic fundamentals can be formed by genetics and evolution why d should we assume any other species would want to follow any patterns that we have? -
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Wed, August 17, 2005 - 1:04 PMPhysics is supposed to be "universal"... and, if it isn't, we'd be able to tell.
Actually, there are other issues to look at that can explain the Fermi Paradox:
Economics
Consider that civilization (what there is of it) is just a side defect of sublimating the reproductive (sex) drive. As such, the idea of competing for reproductive access imposes an "advantage" for a profit motive so that one can look "more equal" than one really is.
This kind of principle isn't going to vary much; biological systems may vary greatly in organization but a successful species (that gets to use their brains) is more likely to have a drive behind a "profit" motive.
Look at the way our profit motive has advanced us up until about 35 years ago; at this point in our social evolution, the profit motive is undermining all of the mechanisms we've had for advancement by reserving the rewards to fewer and fewer people.
Mind you, I had some fun thinking along this vein when I wrote "Seeds of Extinction" (which got too big to send to Analog as a Probability Zero story so I put it up in an "adult" medium despite not being particularly graphic) which can be found at www.asstr.org/~CupaSoup/extinction.html if your web browser doesn't lock you out.
The point is that the *lifetime* in the equation has likely been exceptionally optimistic.
Another point is that, to be honest, there are "chicken-and-egg" factors that enabled *us* to evolve into what we are today. Hands, Brain, and, oddly enough, even Hidden Estrus (which seems almost unique to the human race vs other mammals) all interact and set the stage for us.
(If it weren't for the connection to "Sex", I'd have expected the "Intelligent Design Religion" folks to have embraced Hidden Estrus as the smoking gun of an intelligent designer...)
Oh, yeah...
Evolution? Yeah, Evolution. After all, it's procreative. -
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Wed, August 17, 2005 - 2:21 PMNo argument that Physics is supposed to be universal. Just that we don’t know a whole lot of Physics yet after all where are we on that Unified Field Theory anyway.
Interesting things about evolution it takes branches. Just because we have a profit motive in our branch (which may lead us to extinction) does not mean another civilization in a different environment would not take another branch. Maybe without the competition or self destructive nature. Again a very human centric view of a vast universe with very little real knowledge and a whole lot of hubris. -
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Tue, August 23, 2005 - 9:40 AMNote: I tend to agreed with the "selfish gene" theory of evolution, so this tends to color my viewpoint.
Evolution works through selection pressure, not through "engineering".
If we can ever *do* genetic engineering we can play with our own baseline architecture, but, thinking about it, what kind of traits would we like to engineer in? There will be those (with money) who'll want the vast majority of people to be engineered as "sheeple"...
Selection pressures filter traits *out*. Traits that aren't filtered out are *in* because they're reproduced. "Evolution is ProCreation", after all.
Consider that w/o challenges there's no "need" to evolve new branches to take advantage of ecological niches. Additionally, genetically delivered traits *do* compete with each other... so competition will continue.
Intelligence-- a technology wielding intelligence-- requires a whole set of selection pressures. If we weren't so poorly suited to compete with other animals once we got out of the trees there would have been no real advantage to quick wits, for instance. Tool/weapon use made it possible for us to *not* need to bodily evolve in response to fight/flight using only our bodies but enabled competition in other areas.
What makes a human a human?
We can bark up a whole bunch of trees but I don't think a single answer will ever be found *and* accepted.
So a successful predator-- like Niven's Kzin-- won't need to evolve much intelligence unless they're under selection pressures that benefit those who think their way out *first*... which means they AREN'T the *dominant* form of life on their planet.
I'm not sure how likely a Pak'Mara would be to acquire intelligence without something in their environment demanding it for survival and reproduction.
While I don't think the selection pressures that made us are all that narrow, I personally don't think it's quite as wide as you imply.
Evolution is a form of competition that requires reproduction to cross the finish line; the challenges must provide some benefit to intelligence.
Other *forms* of intelligence at or beyond our range of mentation are likely, of course-- but the likelihood of them being technological is also not what I'd consider probable, either.
Any engineering done, BTW, would have to have the benefit of being reproducible. If new traits don't reproduce then they won't expand. In my teep stories, for instance, those w/ the trait work hard to reinforce it so that it is more of a benefit than a curse.
Of course we human *do* have a tendency to prefer to kill off competitors rather than out-breed them...
(laughs maniacally) -
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Tue, August 23, 2005 - 7:29 PMWhat makes an ape a human?
Money.
Even a corporation has the legal rights of a human being all because of money.
Selection pressure in our species has centered around wealth for ten thousand years: How is that impacting our physiological, not to mention our psychological traits? -
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Re: New answer to the Fermi Paradox
Sun, August 28, 2005 - 3:36 PM<Evolution works through selection pressure>
The selection pressure during the human development came from the environment. The specific predators and food sources available to humans. I believe that this planet would be unique enough to have a unique form of Intelligence. That our genes have in them the culmination of the predators we faced. That another planets species may not have the pre dispositions that we have.
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