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It is a big universe, so who knows if there is currently many species of intelligent life out there or none at all. I would like to believe that we do not represent all of the life that there ever was. I do believe that if we are not the only one, then we are most likely separated from them more by time than distance. There could have been a galaxy wide civilization that thrived for ten million years but died out a billion years ago. We will never know until we go out there and take a good look.
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Thu, March 23, 2006 - 3:42 PMOr they don't care to be noticed...
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Thu, March 23, 2006 - 6:59 PMNah, we're it dude. We are the best that this universe can come up with for intelligent life. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 5:39 AMThe universe would have committed suicide by now were that the case. We're the kind of children that turn parents into raving drug addicts. :p -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 6:52 AMHah tell that to the religious. We turned your God into a drug addict. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 8:42 AMGod? I have no god that I am aware of other than my sweet self. Cheers!
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 11, 2006 - 5:28 AMWe don't exactly know, yet, what else there is in "this Universe." At best, we are beginning to get our first good idea of what's in our immediate stellar neighborhood -- 50-500 LY, depending on what attribute or means of observation is under discussion.
The Universe is billions of LY across; and remember that what we see across a distance in LY is what _was_ there that many _years_ ago. If our kind of intelligence has only become possible in the Universe in the last billion or two billion years, the light signalling its appearance wouldn't have had time to reach us yet from most of the rest of the Universe -- assuming that we could detect it at such distances in the first place.
We do, however, seem to be the first information-age technological civilization to recently emerge in our stellar neighborhood, though. We could detect the radio emissions of any other one within a few hundred light years, easily.
- Jordan
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 8:57 AMI am of the opinion that the "lifetime" estimates for a technical civilization is *far* too optimistic.
It has to do with biology and success.
Assuming the "Seflish Gene" theory explains one way evolution is driven, this gives rise to greed... which is then a way for a civilization (and species) to extinguish itself.
I had a little fun with this some years back when I wrote <A HREF="" title="www.asstr.org/~CupaSoup/e...ction.html">">www.asstr.org/~CupaSoup/e...ction.html"> Seeds of Extinction </A> though, admittedly, the effort at a story was... ahem... rather dry.
My real point is that economic systems evolve to match biological drives which won't vary much, species to species, and, if you look at *our* world's technological species, you see us trying to make greater and greater profit margins and, so, not spending money.
"Leadership is about maximizing gains while management is all about minimizing losses"
-JCL -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 10:33 AMFor a civilization to survive itself for millions of years, it would need a worldview that is cooperative, rather than competitive. As you all know, competition itself is the hallmark of evoluition. As advanced as we are (which is still not that much), we still exhibit our animalistic traits of competition. When put into large groups, I don't see us cooperating very well.
If there are one or two advanced, elegant, and compassionate civilizations out there, I bet they give us a wide berth indeed... -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 24, 2006 - 5:16 PMMaybe they don’t really give a damn about us or anyone else? -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Sat, March 25, 2006 - 9:09 AMNow, now. Let's not put our attributes onto them. ;-)
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Mon, March 27, 2006 - 2:05 PMGood point...
It really does depend on the lifetime of a technological civilization. The Universe might abound with intelligent life, but only a fraction achieve the technological acuity to possible contact us by one degree or another.
Let alone destroy themselves with that technology in the meantime…
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, March 28, 2006 - 10:44 AMThe real problem is that unless the shift from competitive to cooperative is engineered in (revolution instead of evolution) then there's little future.
A cooperative species won't advance technology as quickly simply because there's no real "goad"... though, admittedly, it *is* possible for a challenging environment itself to drive a species into cooperation.
The problem is that we would not be able to comfortably recognize a "cooperative" version of a human-like life form as "human".
Of course there's always the "collective" mechanism like "Mars" in www.project-apollo.net/mos/index.com (Miracle of Science) which would need to cope with the complementary attributes of competition and cooperation without self-destructing.
Mind you, no human would choose to *join* such a collective unless there was some room for the individual to remain an *individual* though, at the same time, there are a lot of folks who'd settle for the level of stability given the frustrations of being shut out of opportunities for advancement.
As for any putatively advanced races, they'd have had to shed the "competitive" drives that evolution instills which would render them incapable of coping with the likes of _us_... and, given the challenges of the universe at large, may be more than mildly irrelevant. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, March 28, 2006 - 1:26 PMJack, good points all around.
I agree with all of them, but your statement <<it *is* possible for a challenging environment itself to drive a species into cooperation.>> made me think about how we might not really know how going out into space over the long haul and in large numbers might just be the challenging environment we need to force us to act more cooperatively. I mean, except in sci-fi, we've never really sent out an ark ship. We don't even really have an LEO space infrastructure going, just a whole lotta telecommunications and spy satellites, and the albatross/ISS. It's not like we have large groups of workers building on, say, the superstructure for a revolving habitat. We have no litmus test for how large groups of people would succeed, or fail, in outer space. One more damn reason to find out the empirical way...
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, March 28, 2006 - 4:41 PMThen again the "Uplift" series of books might have it right to one degree or another? -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, March 28, 2006 - 4:59 PM<<Bows in deep respect>>
You've read the Uplift series, eh? I LOVED those books!!! I akshully got to meet David Brin at the bookstore I once worked at. Great chap. And a great point. Maybe other, more advanced species, take less advanced ones under their wings and help them along. Or, as Brin (ever the realist) spelled out, maybe they take them under their talons and enslave them. Either way, a point we've yet to consider. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Wed, March 29, 2006 - 12:30 AMYoshi, I have read some books by David Brin but I have not read the "Uplift" series. I will have to check them out.
I have been reading Science fiction books for over forty year and have read probably several thousand of them. I own nearly a thousand of them myself in my personal collection. I guess that some people will collect nearly anything.
By the way, I am not so sure that a superior race would want to be helping a younger race that could be their competerors in the future.
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 11, 2006 - 5:31 AMWhy not catallytically competitive? (Which is to say competitive, but limiting its own competitiveness by ethical, moral or procedural rules so as to ensure that the competition is on the whole productive rather than destructive). Catallytic competition, resulting in increased overall system complexity and more efficient exploitation of available niches, seems to be the nature of things in Earthly evolution.
I suspect that an "advanced, elegant and compassionate civilization" would hardly be threatened by low-tech savages such as ourselves. Though it might find us repulsively primitive.
- Jordan
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Wed, March 29, 2006 - 12:10 AMJack, I agree that we as a species with a technological culture will not survive on this planet for a million years. Our only chance is to be on many planets. If the race was spread out slowly over a thousand planets it could survive a million years. Cultures and technologies change into many different forms. Some will last a long time and some will not. I just wonder how we will get “out there”. If the human race does survive a million years, I don't think that they would be all that different from us today. The concept of this big brained, evolved human just is not going to happen.
With my next statements, I want to make it clear that this is an observation, not a reflection of my personal values.
Evolution is all about the survival of the fittest. Only the best would survive to breed and pass on the genes that would best help the species survive. With the beginning of a civilized culture, "survival of the fittest" stopped being a major factor for survival. A civilized culture takes care of the weak and inferior and allows them to live long enough to breed and pass on genes that have a lesser survival value. There is no longer a natural culling of our gene pool. The evolution of our species stopped when we became civilized. We keep putting inferior genes back into our gene pool. We, as a species have become evolutionarily stagnant. We actually have a smaller brain capacity today than the humans that were living twenty or thirty thousand years ago. We have much more knowledge than they had, but they probably had a larger innate intelligence than we have today. After all, the development of a large brain and a high intelligence is itself a survival trait. I think that the evolution of any intelligent species stops when they become "civilized. We reached the level where higher intelligence is no loner needed just to survive. The same should apply to any other intelligent species that is out there. They could have a much older culture and a much greater pool of knowledge than we have but they probably would be of about the same level of intelligence as we are.
Think about it. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Wed, March 29, 2006 - 12:04 PMThis is a popular view, and there is certainly the issue of removing natural selection from the gene pool. However, that doesn't mean selection has stopped:
chronicle.uchicago.edu/060316...e.shtml
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, March 31, 2006 - 9:13 AMI take a slightly different take on "intelligence".
First off, just as warning, I happen to like the "Selfish Gene" theory which seems to explain the majority of what I've seen/felt/experienced. This should provide some idea of my context.
Why do we have intelligence? Well, it's a weapon, all by itself, and gives us an advantage in using tools.
Oddly enough, intelligence also begat communication, an unusualy consequence of intelligence, that allowed humans, in times of stress (and a confluence of common goals) to band together and form communities.
At the same time there's STILL the selfish gene driving a "profit motive" to allow one access to reproductive capacity with less than a 1:1 commitment. Ambition and aggression are where intelligence is also used as a weapon.
But, you see, intelligence evolved only to give us an edge in the game of "survival of the fittest".
And communication skills evolved because males can't "do it" constantly, so have to have some way to keep a female around while they re-charge. (All right, so that's me trying to get a laugh, here.) I've also remarked that all of civilization is just a sublimation of the mating drive.
Another issue, BTW, is that spreading human beings out across light-years of space will ensure some survive over the long term... though, realize, the way we humans function, this will be a situation where competition will likely always be around.
Note: In my opinion a *single* government is not useful over the long term because there are no checks-and-balances against corruption of the system. External competition is needed for any government to keep its hands clean.
It is far more lilkely that we'll find *machines* built by other races and, sadly, many of them may be weapons. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Sat, April 22, 2006 - 2:35 PMI agree that a single government is a bad idea now and would be completely unmanageable on a "galactic" scale. Too much time, too much distance.
On the "Selfish Gene" theory. I think that you might be a little "Jaded". There is a difference between what causes the development of these traits and how we currently use them. We had all of these genetic traits fifty-thousand years ago but use some of them for purposes that they were not developed. It was a harsh would. We increased our level of intelligence over time to cope with the hostile environment. If things were not so harsh, we would not be as intelligent and if things we more harsh, we probably be more intelligent.
Aggressive competition is what created the need for intelligence. It is not the intelligence that causes the aggression. If you consider intelligence to be a weapon, then it was developed to be a defensive tool rather than an aggressive one. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 11, 2006 - 11:15 AMnah, they are out there, lots of them...
but we don't look pretty...nukes, wars, poverty... they don't want anything to do with us cuz we suck. I think the fermi paradox is interesting, but theres a pretty simple answer.
They don't contact us cuz we are bass ackward primitives and we are dangerous war like
barbarians.
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Wed, July 12, 2006 - 10:32 PMI doubt we'd be dangerous, at our level of technology, to any race that was capable of interstellar travel, or even one which was part of an interstellar communications network. Such a race would have at least colonized its own system quite thoroughly, and would command levels of energy that could raze our planet to bedrock or protect their worlds against the worst we could do. Right now, that is.
They _might_ have a policy of not contacting warlike races anyway, though, because they might feel that iwhen we learned more advanced technology from the network (as we certainly would in time) we might then turn our aggressions against themselves our their allies. From the distance of another species psychology the difference between the (fairly peaceful) Western democracies and warlike Powers such as the Nazis, Soviets, or current Terrorist States might appear minor ones; certainly even the noblest human civilizations are capable of great cruelty at times. :(
- Jordan -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Thu, July 13, 2006 - 2:11 PMi have past life recall of driving a large personal shuttle. I can assure you that even with
ftl, thermonuclear bombs are more than enough to take out even highly advanced space ships. The end result of technology is that mutual assured destruction escalates higher and higher. With ftl, you can take out a whole solar system with a gravity effect.
But physics are physics, and "shields" are great working in science fiction, but the reality
is a bit different.
We do present a credible threat to anybody dumb enough to try to visit us. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Thu, July 13, 2006 - 11:57 PMThe issue isn't whether or not an advanced spaceship could withstand a direct nuclear hit; the issue is whether or not the sort of nuclear missiles we have today could ever close to score a hit on an advanced spaceship. The level of energy required for STL interstellar travel is so great that but a fraction of it, diverted to defensive beams, could easily swat down more nuclear missiles than exist on the planet today long before they had ever closed to their warheads' radii of effect. Hypothetical FTL starships, while they might require less energy (depending on your chosen technological assumptions) would incorporate more advanced physical principles than we have today, which would almost certainly enable them to have other defenses, up to and including science-fictional gravitic force fields (*)
We have no means of delivering thermonuclear warheads, even against no opposition, beyond our own moon let alone to other star systems. Against the sort of opposition that an advanced civilization could muster, we simply have no means of delivering thermonuclear warheads to any point off our own world's surface. Unless we had equivalent technology, we would pose no threat to them.
Thermonuclear warheads are pretty small stuff on the scale of interstellar warfare, anyway. Try relativistic kill vehicles (projectiles accelerated to near light speed), antimatter warheads (which could pack hundreds of times the energy of thermonuclear fission-fusion-fission in the same space), or x-ray to gamma-ray lasers (**). THAT is the sort of death a system-wide let alone interstellar civilization could deal out, if it was so inclined.
Compared to an interstellar civilization, we'd be like Australian aboriginies with spears and boomerangs against helicopter gunships and infantry fighting vehicles.
Sincerely Yours,
Jordan
(*) One of the likely means of FTL is the creation of wormhole pairs with spacelike paths, which implies a mastery of gravitics tech.
(**) These are all possible by known physics; I haven't gotten into any real space opera stuff in this post. -
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This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, July 14, 2006 - 6:51 PMThe issue isn't whether or not an advanced spaceship could withstand a direct nuclear hit; the issue is whether or not the sort of nuclear missiles we have today could ever close to score a hit on an advanced spaceship. The level of energy required for STL interstellar travel is so great that but a fraction of it, diverted to defensive beams,
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what makes you think that a drive system entails defense beams?
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could easily swat down more nuclear missiles than exist on the planet today long before they had ever closed to their warheads' radii of effect.
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okay, say its so. Now we have superlaser warfare. The USA also has ground based superlaser
warfare. So unless the ship has shields, we can still hit it hard enough to knock out its guns.
Plus, if the usa fires its full contingent of orbital missiles, thats no small number of objects to shoot
down.
If we look at it tactically, its a rapidly loosing proposition for a space ship to come anywhere near the planet
if they think we will open fire on them.
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Hypothetical FTL starships, while they might require less energy (depending on your chosen technological assumptions) would incorporate more advanced physical principles than we have today, which would almost certainly enable them to have other defenses, up to and including science-fictional gravitic force fields (*)
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first off, its not the quantity of power that does ftl. Thats really just primitive idiocy trying to solve the problem by overpowering it. Its the organizational level or the energy used that matters, not the quantity.
As far as gravitional force feilds go, okay, MAYBE. But what does a gravitional force feild actually accomplish,??
and how large a feild are you thinking we can get for adefense radius.?? While highly evolved technology is a lot like magick, it still has the limits created by actual physical laws.
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We have no means of delivering thermonuclear warheads, even against no opposition, beyond our own moon let alone to other star systems.
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The question is "why don't they visit.? " the answer is that we are barbaric and dangerous. I should think
that would be self evident in the first place, but to belabor the point seems bizzare to me.
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Against the sort of opposition that an advanced civilization could muster, we simply have no means of delivering thermonuclear warheads to any point off our own world's surface. Unless we had equivalent technology, we would pose no threat to them.
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Unless they tried to come here specifically, which is i think the main point of the conversation.
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Thermonuclear warheads are pretty small stuff on the scale of interstellar warfare, anyway. Try relativistic kill vehicles (projectiles accelerated to near light speed), antimatter warheads (which could pack hundreds of times the energy of thermonuclear fission-fusion-fission in the same space), or x-ray to gamma-ray lasers (**). THAT is the sort of death a system-wide let alone interstellar civilization could deal out, if it was so inclined.
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sure, not to mention new inflationary bubbles, gravitometric bombs, and other solar system doomsday devices. So? Just because they could wipe us out doesn't mean that we couldn't wipe them out also
if they came HERE. Would it end badly for us if another wave showed up to answer our agression? probably.
But i doubt you'd think of it that way if you were looking at an alien anthill and trying to decide whether or not
to stick your finger in it to see if you'd get stung.
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Compared to an interstellar civilization, we'd be like Australian aboriginies with spears and boomerangs against helicopter gunships and infantry fighting vehicles.
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true, but if this is just the aliens version of an unarmed transport vehicle like us driving around a CAR
instead of a TANK the truth is, we could be very dangerous to them... dangerous enough that its simply more
sensible for them not to bother to come here.
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(*) One of the likely means of FTL is the creation of wormhole pairs with spacelike paths, which implies a mastery of gravitics tech.
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sure, and if you can do that, you can end the solar system with a closed wormhole loop
or a new inflationary bubble.
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(**) These are all possible by known physics; I haven't gotten into any real space opera stuff in this post.
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please do stay aaway from space opera, i wouldn't want to vomit...lol
sincerely
pan -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, July 14, 2006 - 11:13 PM> what makes you think that a drive system entails defense beams?<
Two general reasons.
The first is that it is almost inconceivable that a civilization could develop even STL, let alone FTL starships, without grasping the principle of the laser, and that the energy required for such travel, if but a small fraction of it were channelled into lasers, would be enough to power a laser-based missile defense system far more capable than anything the whole world could build today.
The second is that travel at high STL speeds requires some sort of forward protection if the ship is not to be eroded by impacts of interstellar gas and dust against her prow. Charged particle s and objects can be deflected by electromagnetic shielding, but for the ship to deal with neutral or nonmagnetic objects it has to turn them into ionic plasma; the best way to do this is with a powerful laser beam.
Now, the kind of sensor required to detect such dust particles in time to hit them with the beam would be highly capable; it would be a trivial modification of function to use such a keen sensor and powerful laser beam to defend a ship against anything as slow and clumsy as modern nuclear missiles would be by those standards.
In other words, the technology required for interstellar travel ensures that a race capable of doing so at speeds greater than a few percent of lightspeed with anything larger than very small and simple probes is also capable of defending themselves against our primitive military technology.
Think about a modern freighter. A modern steel-hulled freighter, with its tens of meters-high sides, is not a warship, but a freighter crew with a few rifles could defend those sides against while sinking by ramming the most powerful war fleets of the Classical world. Likewise, even an "unarmed" starship would have far greater combat potential than the most powerful air and missile forces we could bring to bear today.
> okay, say its so. Now we have superlaser warfare.<
It has to be so unless the technology of the ship has pursued a very different path from our own. Which is of course a possibility. But a very low-probability one that the path is both effective enough to allow interstellar travel but not capable of producing some awesomely powerful weapons effects even with civilian technology.
> The USA also has ground based superlaser warfare. <
We do? Since when?
In terms of what we actually have today in terms of lasers today, what we have are half a dozen to a dozen Airbornee Laser Systems, which are limited to a dozen or so shots each and have no particular ability to hit anything above Low Earth Orbit. And the energy output is pitiful by the standards of the wattage required for interstellar travel.
> So unless the ship has shields, we can still hit it hard enough to knock out its guns. <
First of all, the ship very well might have "shields" -- it could manipulate charged dust particles in its own electromagnetic force fields (which it would need to screen itself against the speed of its own travel) so as to create a renewing barrier which would ablatively absorb laser energies at the levels that we are currently able to generate them. Secondly, you are making the very big assumption that the ship's effective range against our relatively fragile materials is not considerably greater than our cannons' effective range against their centuries-more-advanced superalloys. Finally, you are ignoring the very strong possibility that the ship --- or, more to the point, its auxiliary craft -- would be far more maneuverable than our low-tech aircraft and spacecraft, and hence it could hit us at ranges that we could not hit it (owing to lightspeed lags).
> Plus, if the usa fires its full contingent of orbital missiles, thats no small number of objects to shoot
down. <
Our what? As far as I know, we have no missiles capable of engaging targets below extremely low Earth orbit. And you're massively underestimating the amount of time that these missiles would take to close -- the ship would have a _long_ time (by the standards of a beam laser engagement) to shoot said missiles down. Remember, our missiles would have to close within at _least_ few miles to detonate close enough to have much chance of damaging a ship designed to withstand the stresses of high sublight speeds. (Personally, I wouldn't give us much chance on anything but a direct hit).
> If we look at it tactically, its a rapidly loosing proposition for a space ship to come anywhere near the planet if they think we will open fire on them. <
Their concept of "near" and our concept of "near" might be different. In Classical naval warfare, "near" meant within 100 or so yards of your ship. In modern naval warfare, "near" means within five or so nautical miles (10 _thousand_ yards) of your ship. To them, "close range" would probably mean "within a LS" (300 thousand kilometers) -- more than half the distance from Earth to Luna!
If an alien ship parked itself 250,000 km from the Earth, it could (if it were hostile) rain down destruction on us and there is nothing we could do about it -- at that range none of our lasers would be strong enough to do it much damage, and our missiles would have flight times of _hours to days_ (assuming any had the range to reach it). You are greatly underestimating interstellar, and greatly overestimating our own, technology.
> first off, its not the quantity of power that does ftl. Thats really just primitive idiocy trying to solve the problem by overpowering it. Its the organizational level or the energy used that matters, not the quantity. <
And you don't think that a race with the ability to manipulate through engineering forces that we only dimly grasp theoretically (if at all) would also be able to use this technology to in various subtle ways protect themselves from harm? It's bad enough if they merely use the physics we already know with better engineering and greater wealth than we have -- if they also know _more_ physics then we do, our military capabilities against them would be even _less!_
> As far as gravitional force feilds go, okay, MAYBE. But what does a gravitional force feild actually accomplish,?? <
To take one obvious application, if one could master gravity _and_ had the kind of energies required for interstellar travel, one could power a tractor/repulsor or a force beam which could (as desired) stop missiles in their tracks or smash them to pieces. Or, for that matter, possibly reach down onto the Earth's surface and pick up or smash the batteries trying to engage your ship!
That's a big brute force obvious way of doing it. Several science fiction authors have pointed out that if one could master gravitics one could tune the beam to a particular mass-pattern (say the signature of an Airborne Laser System airplane) and apply far less energy to it at its resonant frequencies, shaking it to pieces with great efficiency.
Oh, and that could be done through armor. Even through miles of solid rock. In other words, if the aliens had _that_ technology they could do things like stop us from launching our missiles by vibrating the people trying to turn the launch keys to red jelly on the spot. Nice image?
Or, if they were more humane, they could simply cause the missiles to harmlessly fly apart in midspace, thoughtfully removing the warheads and directing any other fragments (via tractor beams) onto trajectories where they would impact harmlessly far from human habitations. That's even scarier, in a different way, if you think about it.
> The question is "why don't they visit.? " the answer is that we are barbaric and dangerous. I should think
that would be self evident in the first place, but to belabor the point seems bizzare to me. <
I think that you haven't though through the implications of a sufficiently superior technology. How threatened would a modern US Marine LAV platoon be by a village of Neolithic savages? Or even a Sumerian city-state? That's the kind of technological gap that would exist between us and interstellar aliens.
> Unless they tried to come here specifically, which is i think the main point of the conversation. <
Well, if they wanted to come here specficially, and they felt we were dangerous, they'd simply bring along _their_ equivalent of personal body armor and military weapons. Which would probably be on a scale that would let individual soldiers defeat whole Earth divisions, given the energy and tech differences.
Assuming that they wanted to land with sapients, which they wouldn't have to. They could land disposable communications drones with enough defenses to make sure that we would have to expend serious military efforts to destroy them, and keep sending them until we gave up or ran out of ammunition.
Mind you, that's assuming they're _not_ hostile. If they were hostile, the war would be simple. Zap zap zap, we lose. And if they were genocidal, we die.
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Thermonuclear warheads are pretty small stuff on the scale of interstellar warfare, anyway. Try relativistic kill vehicles (projectiles accelerated to near light speed), antimatter warheads (which could pack hundreds of times the energy of thermonuclear fission-fusion-fission in the same space), or x-ray to gamma-ray lasers (**). THAT is the sort of death a system-wide let alone interstellar civilization could deal out, if it was so inclined.
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sure, not to mention new inflationary bubbles, gravitometric bombs, and other solar system doomsday devices. <
Um, no, I didn't mention them because we don't know if they are theoretically possible (I said I would stick to real physics as much as I could). RKV's and high-frequency lasers are both things that we could theoretically build NOW if we tried; our models just wouldn't be very effective compared to what a system-wide civilization could construct.
New inflationary bubbles may or may not be possible. One version of the theory that allows their creation says that they form pocket universes which can only interact with ours through a wormhole neck if at all. I'm not sure what a "gravitometric" bomb is, but if you're talking about an artificial short-lived singularity, it's probably theoretically possible but we don't know how to do it, not even theoretically.
But yeah, an interstellar civilization, especially if FTL, might be able to play all sorts of nasty tricks like that on us, if they were so minded.
> So? Just because they could wipe us out doesn't mean that we couldn't wipe them out also if they came HERE. <
Um, no, that's exactly what it _does_ mean, unless the aliens for some bizarre reason only ever develop offensive weapons and NEVER develop any defensive weapons -- or never develop any weapons on scales OTHER than the cataclysmic.
As counterexample I give you Earth humans. We build megaton-range nuclear ICBM's, yes, but we also build every other size of missile down to personal firearms, and we also build defenses against the various sorts of offensive devices we construct. A bunch of 21st century humans in a freighter, faced with a potentially hostile Neolithic island people, would not be limited to either nuking the island or avoiding it -- they could choose to wear body armor and carry automatic rifles, if they really wanted to do things on that island and seriously feared native attack.
That's just in terms of "hard" technology, of course. Modern humans can and do use all sorts of "soft" technology (psychology and tactics) to overcome primitive humans and subhuman beasts without even fighting. An interstellar civilization would probably also have soft technology far in advance of our own.
> But i doubt you'd think of it that way if you were looking at an alien anthill and trying to decide whether or not to stick your finger in it to see if you'd get stung. <
Funny you should put it that way.
Protective suits capable of fending off theattacks of social insects is a technology we've had for a _very_ long time. Beekeepers use them when dealing with the more hazardous strains.
We also, of course, have Raid ...
> Compared to an interstellar civilization, we'd be like Australian aboriginies with spears and boomerangs against helicopter gunships and infantry fighting vehicles.
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true, but if this is just the aliens version of an unarmed transport vehicle like us driving around a CAR
instead of a TANK the truth is, we could be very dangerous to them... dangerous enough that its simply more sensible for them not to bother to come here. <
Actually, primtiive (pre European contact) Aboriginies would have a lot of problems dealing with a group of explorers in a car suitable for the Outback (which would be a large air-conditioned SUV or other All-Terrain Vehicle). For starters, they wouldn't be sure how to attack the vehicles -- _we_ with their weapons and skills would tell them "aim for the driver!" but they wouldn't automatically have the knowledge that this was its most vulnerable spot. They also wouldn't even automatically realize that parts such as the windows and tires were weak spots -- they might waste a lot of time smashing headlights or beating against the grille.
Modern humans going into a situation with potentially murderous natives would probably carry firearms. Maybe not full military weapons, but even a civilian hunting rifle or a decent pistol would be hideously effective against people armed with nothing better than spears, war clubs and boomerangs (and yes, I know that the Australian _war_ boomerang is a real missile weapon) and mostly protected by the metal parts of their vehicles. A wealth factor would also apply in that Aboriginal tribes, being pre-agricultural, were small -- it would not take very many dead or wounded Aboriginies to make the enemy tribe run away. And so on.
> (*) One of the likely means of FTL is the creation of wormhole pairs with spacelike paths, which implies a mastery of gravitics tech.
-----------------
sure, and if you can do that, you can end the solar system with a closed wormhole loop
or a new inflationary bubble.<
Or do smaller scale things like warp a volley of missiles heading towards you to a harmless location, for instance. That's my point -- FTL tech gives you a lot of means of defending yourself that are beyond not merely our technology but our _science_ as well, and many of them would be possible on many different orders of magnitude.
- Jordan
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Sat, July 15, 2006 - 12:03 PMyou make a very convincing argument, but i still think the answer to the fermi paradox is
essentially about seeing us as pond scum with nukes.
The problem with arguing further is that we are both of us making assumptions about the
state of the standard hyper technology and what that would entail which is completely hypothetical. Since we have different starting axioms and premises, we end up with
different versions.
The other problem with arguing further is that i think you are in many ways right, but i think
that you overestimate probably the kind of vessel most likely to be out on a pleasure cruise.
I suppose that the ending thought is this; we have cars and we have planes, but we still end up riding bicycles.
-
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Sun, July 16, 2006 - 4:35 PMWell, I don't think that the interstellar equivalent of a yacht, not expecting trouble, could necessarily loiter in close Earth orbit without some danger. For one thing, its computers and sensors might not be configured to expect a threat from moving objects when at such low velocities relative to the interstellar medium, and so a swarm of missiles might get one or more through its meteor / medium-at-speed defense systems. For another thing, ordinary civilian memebers _peaceful_ interstellar race might not expect an unprovoked attack.
On the other hand, a yacht _could_ safely loiter pretty much anywhere in the Solar System _other_ than close Earth orbit and if it chose open communication by radio (or some equivalent system). We don't have any weapons handy that can reach above, say, synchronous Earth orbit (if we even still have _those_ -- we supposedly junked them after the end of the Cold War), and it would take us time to cobble some together. "Time" as in at least weeks, if not longer.
- Jordan
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Mon, July 17, 2006 - 11:07 AMyou make interesting assumptions which if true would support your perspective.
I'll list a few.
firstly, that it takes huge amounts of energy to do ftl.
I answered this, you simply skipped over it and re-asserted the next post
that it does take huge amounts of energy.
Well, no, in fact, it can be done with a very small amount of energy, the question
is the complexity of the holography. Essentially the question is how to use a standing
magnetic wave form to modulate and then distort the vessels own gravitional feild. How much energy you have to do that with isn't even a tiny fraction as important as how well
you can bring magnetic feild energies into phase with gravitic feild energies.
Then you assume that beam energy weapons would be required. Again, no, the standard
method of ftl travel is to leave the physical universe via an artificial hyperdimensional hop
into gravitic node subspace. Any "matter" that such an ftl vessel would encounter would be changed via the warpfeild instantaneously into gravitons or tachyons.
Now i understand your base assumptions there, and i can sorta shrug my shoulders,
but to think that the USA actually got rid of our space military weapons when there is zero
proof of that and every reason to beleive that such were simply reclassified top secret...
THAT base assumption leaves me speachless;
You really aren't paying attention to reality; you are simply making up reality in the version that suits your argument.
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Mon, July 17, 2006 - 3:32 PMProm said:
>firstly, that it takes huge amounts of energy to do ftl. <
Actually, I've mostly been assuming FTL travel. But I will point out that, where current physics does allow for FTL, it _does_ require tremendous amounts of energy. Doing things like ripping open wormholes big enough to admit spaceships in the fabric of spacetime doesn't come cheap.
> Well, no, in fact, it can be done with a very small amount of energy, the question
is the complexity of the holography. Essentially the question is how to use a standing
magnetic wave form to modulate and then distort the vessels own gravitional feild. How much energy you have to do that with isn't even a tiny fraction as important as how well
you can bring magnetic feild energies into phase with gravitic feild energies. <
Assuming that you can do this in the first place. And there's no particular reason to assume that this wouldn't require tremendous energy, since gravitics merge with the other three forces only at the energy-densities of the primal Universe. I'm willing to postulate ways around this, but I see no reason to assume that it's true.
> Then you assume that beam energy weapons would be required. Again, no, the standard
method of ftl travel is to leave the physical universe via an artificial hyperdimensional hop
into gravitic node subspace. Any "matter" that such an ftl vessel would encounter would be changed via the warpfeild instantaneously into gravitons or tachyons <
Ok, we'll assume that your "warpfield" can do this thing ...
Now, given _those_ assumptions, constructing an "energy shield" such as you claim is difficult or impossible would be very easy. You could use the same resonance effect to generate tractor/repulsor effects however needed to push dangerous incoming objects away from your ship, or at least onto non-intercept courses. Or you could project the "warpfield" itself to change it into elementary particles of a type not dangerous to the ship mounting the projector.
> Now i understand your base assumptions there, and i can sorta shrug my shoulders, <
Why? Because they're made based on _known_ rather than made-up physics?
> but to think that the USA actually got rid of our space military weapons when there is zero
proof of that and every reason to beleive that such were simply reclassified top secret...
THAT base assumption leaves me speachless; <
ROFLMAO!
You're willing to postulate "warp fields" that allow travel through "gravitic node subspace" as a base assumption, but you find it improbable that America (and Russia) simply disposed of weapons that they claimed to have disposed of!
That's funny, really. FYI, physical reality is a bit harder to change than _social_ reality!
Anyway, neither we nor the Russians ever developed any weapons, as far as I know, that could reach anywhere effectively beyond geosynchronous orbit, tops. That's because we had no targets to shoot at above geosynchronous orbit. And _most_ ASAT weapons had even shorter ranges: they were intended to shoot at recon sats in Near Earth Orbit, just a few hundred miles up.
So even if we and the Russians both had ASAT's galore, your hypothetical visitors would be perfectly safe if they stayed, say, half a lightsecond from the Earth.
And even if we launched something at them that could reach them there, AND they had no defense capable of stopping it, it would take _hours_ to reach them. They could simply get out of its way.
Wait, don't tell me. Magic subspace hyperdrive, normal-space maneuvering with jets of compressed gas, right?
- Jordan
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Mon, July 17, 2006 - 3:57 PM>firstly, that it takes huge amounts of energy to do ftl. <
Actually, I've mostly been assuming FTL travel. But I will point out that, where current physics does allow for FTL, it _does_ require tremendous amounts of energy. Doing things like ripping open wormholes big enough to admit spaceships in the fabric of spacetime doesn't come cheap.
---------------
so sez the human.
---------------
> Well, no, in fact, it can be done with a very small amount of energy, the question
is the complexity of the holography. Essentially the question is how to use a standing
magnetic wave form to modulate and then distort the vessels own gravitional feild. How much energy you have to do that with isn't even a tiny fraction as important as how well
you can bring magnetic feild energies into phase with gravitic feild energies. <
Assuming that you can do this in the first place. And there's no particular reason to assume that this wouldn't require tremendous energy, since gravitics merge with the other three forces only at the energy-densities of the primal Universe. I'm willing to postulate ways around this, but I see no reason to assume that it's true.
---------------
okay, well, at least we are leaving some doors open.
--------------
> Then you assume that beam energy weapons would be required. Again, no, the standard
method of ftl travel is to leave the physical universe via an artificial hyperdimensional hop
into gravitic node subspace. Any "matter" that such an ftl vessel would encounter would be changed via the warpfeild instantaneously into gravitons or tachyons <
Ok, we'll assume that your "warpfield" can do this thing ...
Now, given _those_ assumptions, constructing an "energy shield" such as you claim is difficult or impossible would be very easy.
----------------
no, cuz you are either in hyperspace or norm space. Your apparatus isn't designed to
do beams. If you mucketied around with it for a few hours, sure, but what would you need
beams for? The actual cosmos is a very peaceful place, theres not any of this fighting
stuff going on...and theres no reason to use beams versus junk floating around that you
can just out manuever.
Good sensors and a good drive system are what are required to get around. Beams may
be easy compared to ftl; but they are frills or add ons, not standard equipment.
---------------
You could use the same resonance effect to generate tractor/repulsor effects however needed to push dangerous incoming objects away from your ship, or at least onto non-intercept courses. Or you could project the "warpfield" itself to change it into elementary particles of a type not dangerous to the ship mounting the projector.
-----------
Again, you are apparently missing how this works. Sheild holography turns out to be
MUCH harder than ftl, for a variety of reasons. The warpfeild puts the ship in a bubble
outside of normal space time. Shoot at that bubble and you are shooting at a singularity
with a tap knot wormhole attached to it. But if the ship comes out of warp, it doesn't need
that kind of thing.
------------------
> Now i understand your base assumptions there, and i can sorta shrug my shoulders, <
Why? Because they're made based on _known_ rather than made-up physics?
-----------------
i can accept "known" as in "known by you."
"made up" is an ad hominem attack; i'd point out that "not known by you"
is not equal to "made up."
--------------
> but to think that the USA actually got rid of our space military weapons when there is zero
proof of that and every reason to beleive that such were simply reclassified top secret...
THAT base assumption leaves me speachless; <
ROFLMAO!
------------------------------
well, at least i made you laugh.
-------------------
You're willing to postulate "warp fields" that allow travel through "gravitic node subspace" as a base assumption, but you find it improbable that America (and Russia) simply disposed of weapons that they claimed to have disposed of!
------------------
Yes, I'm politically paranoid like that, but then i have proof that our government is insanely evil and corrupt on other issues, so, i intend to assume the worst.
does this make politics relevant?
-----------------
That's funny, really. FYI, physical reality is a bit harder to change than _social_ reality!
----------------
I'm not trying to change that social reality, i simply have a more suspicious view of our government than you do.
----------------
Anyway, neither we nor the Russians ever developed any weapons, as far as I know, that could reach anywhere effectively beyond geosynchronous orbit, tops.
-------------
missiles, true. Laser weapons etc? we have things good to ranges possibly out to lunar
orbit.
--------------
That's because we had no targets to shoot at above geosynchronous orbit. And _most_ ASAT weapons had even shorter ranges: they were intended to shoot at recon sats in Near Earth Orbit, just a few hundred miles up.
------------------
all true.
-------------
So even if we and the Russians both had ASAT's galore, your hypothetical visitors would be perfectly safe if they stayed, say, half a lightsecond from the Earth.
------------
true.
------------
And even if we launched something at them that could reach them there, AND they had no defense capable of stopping it, it would take _hours_ to reach them. They could simply get out of its way.
----------------
unless its a laser or beam weapon, in which case they like anybody learns of it as it
arrives unless they have tachyonic sensors.
--------------
Wait, don't tell me. Magic subspace hyperdrive, normal-space maneuvering with jets of compressed gas, right?
--------------
no, sublight speeds would be done by essentially a magnetic pulse ramrocket effect.
Same engines, different application.
---------------
pan -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 18, 2006 - 4:44 AMFirst of all, I think it's a bit amusing that you're only describing "our" government as "corrupt and evil" (and able to shoot at spaceships) while apparently the Russians (and other Earthly regimes) are idealistic, good (and utterly incapable of shooting at spaceships). This is a variant of Americanocentrism I've encountered among a lot of people, in which America is imagined to have the only government capable of acting (for good or for evil) while every other government in the world merely re-acts to our actions.
Secondly, we (as far as I know) never developed beam weapons able to project destructive quantities of energies out to Lunar orbit. While theoretically there is no reason why it couldn't be done (and as Luna is only around 1.5 LS away, the signal-to-beam lag back at the target would be only around 3 seconds), the required accuracy of focus would be considerable. Our real beam weapons were all designed to shoot at missiles or at most fairly close satellites, at ranges of only a few percent of a LS.
Thirdly, beams are useful as communications devices and as tools, in addition to their utility as weapons. To any race that had developed interstellar travel, projecting energy in coherent beam form would be an _old_ trick; we developed the ability to do so a decade before we even reached Luna! Conversely, the use of various forms of armor and shielding to resist beam attack would also be an old trick.
Fourthly, even if your hypothetical aliens employ a technology of FTL travel so sparing of energy that their spaceships are _relatively_ low-energy, the simple presence of "sensors" and the ability to "maneuver out of the way," as you so trivially put it, would make it ridiculously easy to avoid attack by any race as planetbound as our own. Missiles would be _no_ threat unless they went into atmosphere (even in LEO their ships would be far more maneuverable than anything we have in space); as for beams, as I've pointed out we can only hit things within at most several thousand kilometers from the Earth.
Finally, these statements all apply to small civilian craft. Anything actually _designed_ as a warship or even patrol ship (and don't tell me that _nobody_ in their interstellar community _ever_ does anything malevolent or even makes a dangerous mistake) would as a matter of course have a high-capacity powerplant, and the capacity to project missiles and generate beams, shields, and other things of which we have not yet thought at present.
And to get back to your original argument that fear of attack by us would preclude making contact:
If hypothetical interstellar aliens were afraid that we would attack _a contact mission_, they would simply make contact by radio. Their own ship would stand off whatever distance from the Earth they judged was required to protect them from our weapons (if they were as paranoid as you're being, they could simply choose to stand off a few LS -- heck, they could sit on the far side of a celestial body such as Luna and use a relay buoy to bounce their signals to the Earth) and make contact that way. They would be completely safe in this manner (unless interstellar aliens really DO have no defense against computer viruses -- shades of ID4!)
There is nothing that we could do to them at _our_ level of technology that could possibly threaten any civilization with the ability to travel between the stars unless its representatives _chose_ to come to the Earth unprotected by their own technology, which would be a slightly stupid thing for them to do if we really were that much more culturally barbaric than they were. The reason why is that we, right now, have no ability to militarily affect anything beyond fairly close Earth orbit.
I say "militarily," because while we could of course theoretically launch a nuclear missile to, say, the surface of Mars (*), in practice if we had an enemy on Mars the immense amount of time (**) it would take said missile to arrive would offer this enemy ample opportunity to intercept the missile (or, for that matter, simply relocate, even if they had fixed installations).
And of course, there is _right now_ nothing we could do to harm anyone in another star system.
So presumably, said hypothetical aliens would have to be more worried about what we might do in the future, when we had a more advanced technology -- and be avoiding contact for fear that such contact might stimulate us to develop just such a more advanced technology.
Sincerely Yours,
Jordan
(*) assuming that we adapted a multi-stage escape-velocity-capable rocket to be the delivery system. Real-world ICBM's do not match this description, for the very good reason that all our enemies live on our own planet.
(**) Many months, because our limited delta vee capability ties us to low-energy transfer orbits. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 18, 2006 - 11:41 AMFirst of all, I think it's a bit amusing that you're only describing "our" government as "corrupt and evil" (and able to shoot at spaceships) while apparently the Russians (and other Earthly regimes) are idealistic, good (and utterly incapable of shooting at spaceships).
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entirely out of left feild i never said any of that. America is the nation with nukes in orbit.
We have also the lasers and etc. So we are the ones with the toys other nations don't
have. I don't like the soviet unions oligarchy any better than i like ours, and i like chinas
less. This is a propagandist blame game escape knot, its a common one. Try to make it sound like i am a jerk and i hate america or some such bs. What drivel. Where do you people get this stuff? (oh yeah, its cooked up in republican think tanks.)
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This is a variant of Americanocentrism I've encountered among a lot of people, in which America is imagined to have the only government capable of acting (for good or for evil) while every other government in the world merely re-acts to our actions.
----------------
I'm sorry you run into that, i certainly don't think that way and considering how well you
are projecting, it leaves room to question whether anybody you met actually does or whether they just play more easilly into your projections.
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Secondly, we (as far as I know) never developed beam weapons able to project destructive quantities of energies out to Lunar orbit.
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?!?!?!?!?!?!
dude, any orbital based laser system ....
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While theoretically there is no reason why it couldn't be done (and as Luna is only around 1.5 LS away, the signal-to-beam lag back at the target would be only around 3 seconds), the required accuracy of focus would be considerable. Our real beam weapons were all designed to shoot at missiles or at most fairly close satellites, at ranges of only a few percent of a LS.
-----------------
Designed to do that yes, have you looked at the phase feild integrity or the actual projected
drop-off?
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Thirdly, beams are useful as communications devices and as tools, in addition to their utility as weapons. To any race that had developed interstellar travel, projecting energy in coherent beam form would be an _old_ trick;
--------------
Not to say it wouldn't be an old trick, just saying that its not necessarilly true that they show up in dreadknoughts ready for battle. Your entire argument is crazy warcentric. The universe
just isn't like that.
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we developed the ability to do so a decade before we even reached Luna! Conversely, the use of various forms of armor and shielding to resist beam attack would also be an old trick.
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I think this is going to have to be my last post to you, its clear you will just run around in circles chasing your tail until you feel you have "won."
Obviously these would be old tricks, the question is whther or not they are employed by the
AVERAGE space Ship. I can tell you they aren't. You can browbeat me and argue with me,
but the fact is, I KNOW.
----------------
Fourthly, even if your hypothetical aliens employ a technology of FTL travel so sparing of energy that their spaceships are _relatively_ low-energy, the simple presence of "sensors" and the ability to "maneuver out of the way," as you so trivially put it, would make it ridiculously easy to avoid attack by any race as planetbound as our own.
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The best deal for an attacked spaceship of the kind that is the most common out there
if attacked is to just hop into the warp bubble and run.
-------------------
Missiles would be _no_ threat unless they went into atmosphere (even in LEO their ships would be far more maneuverable than anything we have in space); as for beams, as I've pointed out we can only hit things within at most several thousand kilometers from the Earth.
-----------------
You have made that assertation, but you haven't really backed it up with anything.
--------------
Finally, these statements all apply to small civilian craft. Anything actually _designed_ as a warship or even patrol ship (and don't tell me that _nobody_ in their interstellar community _ever_ does anything malevolent or even makes a dangerous mistake) would as a matter of course have a high-capacity powerplant, and the capacity to project missiles and generate beams, shields, and other things of which we have not yet thought at present.
-------------------
Sure, do you want me to draw you a shuttle or a dreadknought.? Yes they exist. Why would
anybody bother operating one in a backwater z list place like sol system?
----------------
And to get back to your original argument that fear of attack by us would preclude making contact:
If hypothetical interstellar aliens were afraid that we would attack _a contact mission_, they would simply make contact by radio.
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You totally miss and evade the point,. the point of making contact is to make contact. If you don't want to meet in person eventually theres no point in meeting at all. If you can't trust the natives not to shoot at you once you have landed ("the day the earth stood still" ala carte)
Why would you bother to make radio contact? And who says that they use radio? Gravity
beams would be far more useful for long term communications.
-----------------
Their own ship would stand off whatever distance from the Earth they judged was required to protect them from our weapons (if they were as paranoid as you're being, they could simply choose to stand off a few LS -- heck, they could sit on the far side of a celestial body such as Luna and use a relay buoy to bounce their signals to the Earth) and make contact that way.
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ever been in acting class? WHATS THE MOTIVATION
??????????????
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They would be completely safe in this manner (unless interstellar aliens really DO have no defense against computer viruses -- shades of ID4!)
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safe in what way? safe to watch humanity go apenuts and start shooting at each other in
panic? Safe to have our government threaten to shoot at them if they come into our airspace? Safe is a pretty relative term.
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There is nothing that we could do to them at _our_ level of technology that could possibly threaten any civilization with the ability to travel between the stars unless its representatives _chose_ to come to the Earth unprotected by their own technology,
------------------
<Mostly true.
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which would be a slightly stupid thing for them to do if we really were that much more culturally barbaric than they were.
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I rest my case.
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 18, 2006 - 12:38 PM
> America is the nation with nukes in orbit. <
??? Since when? The concept of basing nuclear missiles in orbit (called FOBS or "Fractional Orbit Bombardment System" -- a cute way of saying "fall out of the orbit onto the enemy's heads") was thought up in the 1960's but neither America nor the Soviets ever actually based any there, largely because of the Outer Space Treaty (which I think will eventually fall by the wayside, but it hasn't yet). America then considered building nuclear-pumped x-ray lasers as part of SDI, but SDI was never constructed and that particular part of it never got off the drawing board.
The current Ballistic Missile Defense system that we've actually deployed is based on an airborne element comprising Airborne Laser Systems (jet transports with binary chemical-fuelled lasers that are good for about 15 or so shots before they run out of juice), a sea-based element composed of uprated Standard SAM's, and a land-based element composed of ABM's (I'm not sure of the models). Nothing about any nuclear missiles there.
While it's of course _possible_ that we secretly have nuclear weapons based in orbit for some reason or other, the reason would be difficult to grasp. Our existing weapons are capable of hitting any point on Earth and none of our enemies have defenses capable of stopping their delivery, so what would be the purpose of basing weapons in space? Against the Soviets we considered it to ensure the survivability of our deterrent force, but we went with improved SSBN's instead.
I didn't say that you hated America. Only that your statement implicitly assumed that America was the only Power worth considering in the world. That's not true -- America is the _strongest_ Power on Earth, but there are other Great Powers including China, Russia, Britain, France, and India (to name five of the most powerful other ones).
No, an "orbital based laser system" is NOT necessarily capable of hitting effectively out to Lunar orbit. There are three reasons for this:
1) the sensor system may not be capable of detecting and tracking a target accurately at that distance _for targetting purposes_ (which is much more precise than needed for mere astronomy or telemetry).
2) the beam may not be able to maintain enough of a focus at that range, which is after all over ten times farther than the longest plausible ICBM engagement range, and finally
3) the target may be maneuverable enough that the 3-second signal-to-weapon-to-target lag (twice the distance in LS plus whatever lag exists in the targetting system itself) is too great to allow a beam to accurately engage an evading target (this last limitation is inherent in physics, you can get around it only if you have FTL sensors and weapons).
Plus, I don't know that we actually _have_ any orbital lasers. It would be sort of cool if we did, and we talked about doing it back in the 1980's, but as far as I know our current defense plans don't include any such systems. The Air Borne Laser System can _shoot_ up into Near Earth Orbit but it is based in the atmosphere.
I'm not necessarily talking about "space dreadnoughts" when I'm talking about the capability of hypothetical armed alien craft such as "warships" or "patrol ships," nor would the hypothetical aliens have to be "crazy warcentric" to have a few such armed vessels in commission. Presumably there are some at least criminal types ("space pirates," to use the glorious old pulp sf term) running about, and occasionally civilian ships would get into trouble and need assistance. So it would make sense to have some highly maneuverable ships with some weapons and defenses available.
Think not of the German High Seas Fleet, but rather of the US Coast Guard. Fast ships with good sensors and a lot of rescue equipment onboard; and a few fairly light weapons to deal with the occasional resistance by armed smugglers, pirates and the like. My point is that even "light" weapons of a technology centuries or millennia in advance of our own would be overwhelmingly better than anything we have today.
> --------------
The best deal for an attacked spaceship of the kind that is the most common out there
if attacked is to just hop into the warp bubble and run.
------------------- <
Then if they can do that, then why would they feel endangered by us? We have no way of pursuing a ship into a "warp bubble" -- we don't even _theoretically_ know how to do that!
> -------------------
Missiles would be _no_ threat unless they went into atmosphere (even in LEO their ships would be far more maneuverable than anything we have in space); as for beams, as I've pointed out we can only hit things within at most several thousand kilometers from the Earth.
----------------- <
>
>You have made that assertation, but you haven't really backed it up with anything.<
The missiles would be no threat because we have no missiles designed to make radical maneuvers out of the atmosphere. The only missiles we ever developed designed to engage targets in space were various kinds of ASAT's and they were designed to engage slowly-maneuvering or totally non-maneuvering satellites, not crewed vessels capable of making extreme evasive maneuvers.
The beams would be no threat because the energies employed are only in the megawatt range and the focuses achieved are pathetic by the standards of what would be required for interplanetary or even interlunar space warfare. Furthermore, since we have only STL sensors they would be ludicrously inaccurate beyond a LS or so.
All a ship would need to do to avoid being hit would be to stay out a few LS and make at least some manuevers constantly. If it did that it would detect our firing (from ionization of the tenuous gas in the void nearby) long before we could score a hit.
Plus, I rather suspect that the advanced materials of which FTL starships would likely be constructed would be a bit harder to damage than the titanium-steel alloys of which we currently build spacecraft hulls. I've done some research on this topic, and I know for instance that we would _today_ use much more iridium and even (for some purposes) osmium in our alloys and composites, were they both not rare and expensive metals. Well, they aren't in our Asteroid Belt, and probably not in the Asteroid Belts of _most_ systems. An interplanetary, let alone interstellar, race would have much more affordable higher-grade metals and hence much stronger ships than we can construct today.
And that's leaving out that one of the effects of the warp-field magneto-gravitic resonance tech you're postulating would be the ability to flip quarks within subatomic particles. That gives you _femtotech_ -- the ability to work with matter at the level of subatomic particles rather than merely molecules. Given that you can form exotic matters such as stable positroniums (*), neutroniums and other materials with thousands of times the theoretical maximum strength of anything we can make today. In fact, with femtotech-formed exotic matters, I'm not sure that a direct nuclear hit would be enough to penetrate a spaceship hull!
Again, I'm not talking about the equivalent of "dreadnoughts" -- I'm talking about the equivalent of "patrol ships" -- which are _exactly_ the sort of ships one would expect to encounter in a backwater system inhabited by potentially nasty natives!
> You totally miss and evade the point,. the point of making contact is to make contact. If you don't want to meet in person eventually theres no point in meeting at all. <
With an advanced technology, you don't need to "meet in person" to "make contact." And you could, if you wanted to meet in person, negotiate the necessary safe passage agreements from a distance (and make whatever arrangements required to ensure that the other guy knew that he would be sorry if he violated them) (**) before attempting a landing.
Well yeah, I can see why the aliens might not _want_ to make contact; I just don't think it would be the might of our awesome (hah!) weapons scaring them away.
Sincerely Yours,
Jordan
(*) Positronium (made of matter and antimatter) is normally not stable. Indeed, an atom of positronium is distinguished primarily by the fact that it blows itself to bits in a millionth or so of a second :)
(**) "And of course I know our shuttle will be safe. That's a nice International Space Station you have there. If there were misunderstanding things might start flying around at relativistic velocities, and it would be a shame if anything happened to it. So as I was saying, I know that nobody's going to shoot at our shuttle ..."
:D -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 18, 2006 - 2:00 PMThis has been a fascinating debate.
Not that either of you care, but I have to side with Jordan on this one for the simple fact that in war, the force that holds the high ground has the advantage. If they also have higher tech, then they would be able to swat down any number of missiles launched at them. A spaceship in orbit quite simply has gravity on its side, doesn't it? Also, a nice vantage point to spot the launch of missiles.
Having said that however, I do agree with Prometheus on his seminal point about our government, but not limited to the U.S. As you both know, there's a leetle thing called "Black Op's" where billions of bucks are put into R&D on some very scary projects. To think that what we see on the Military Channel or Discovery Wings really represents the "cutting edge" of our military tech is a bit naive. So, unless either of you has some real high security clearance and knows of these things, it may well be that lasers are far more powerful than we admit.
The thing that is really funny (in a sad and twisted way) is that we're sitting here talking about being able to harm aliens in our vicinity, and in the "real" world, the Deep Space Network that we might use to detect these spaceships (assuming we COULD detect them, of course) is undergoing a bigger threat than aliens. It's called "lack of funding". I saw on NasaWatch the other week that the DSN is actually in jeopardy of failing due to lack of funds to keep it running.
Yes, we may be dangerous as a race, but we're so short-sided that we may not even be around long enough for anyone to discover us. Yet another answer to the Fermi Paradox, which depresses me mightily. -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Tue, July 18, 2006 - 2:33 PM
I actually agree that there is a strong _possibility_ that we have anti-spacecraft weapons more powerful than we have publicized. I just don't consider it a necessary probability. This is, basically, because we don't have any obvious military targets farther out than Synchronous Earth Orbit.
I'm pretty sure we don't have any weapons designed to hit anything beyond Lunar orbit because Luna is the farthest humans have ever gone, and so while I can see a plausible (to defense planners) military scenario where it became necessary to attack a rival Moonbase (some time a decade or more from now), I don't see us planning to engage targets beyond Luna. Though, of course, we might have some weapons that could be adapted for this purpose in a crisis.
Oh, it's almost certain that we have all kinds of secret weapons in general. Remember when we first unveiled the Stealth fighter or the electromagnetic pulse bombs? Interestingly, one of the until-recently secret weapons was an electrical shield designed to protect armored fighting vehicles from shaped-charge based warheads, so "energy shields" are no longer purely science ficitonal :)
Yes, I really think that we should focus, whether as a country or as a species, I don't much care which, on defense against asteroids. An 0.1 KT one crashed in northern Norway; if that had hit a city it would have caused death on the scale of 9/11. The Tunguska iceteroid was even bigger, and just because Dinosaur Killers come along on the _average_ every hundred or two hundred million years is no _guarantee_ that one won't show up tomorrow.
- Jordan -
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Re: Missed them by a billion years
Fri, July 21, 2006 - 5:38 PMasteroid mining and mapping is a good idea i agree.
:)
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