Visitation vs. Communication

topic posted Tue, August 16, 2005 - 9:29 PM by  Dave
Share/Save/Bookmark
Advertisement
Hey, I 'm new to tribe and hence, this particular forum and I'd love to chip in my two cents to see what people have to say.

The Drake equation is a great way for us to put our thoughts right on the likelyhood of intelligent life on other planets. Most will agree that the sheer SIZE of our universe probably makes us one of many. However, when you apply this same logic to visitation by aliens, there is such vast distances involved that the ability to find us is nil. I did the math based on our galaxy alone and if you could search an entire star system for life every minute, you would get through our galaxy in about 192 years. If a civilization could search one system every hour, it would take about 11,520 years. If we up this to one day, we're up to 276,480 years, well before any vestige of intelligence (jokes aside) could be detected on this planet.
The first response I usually hear is, "what if they have some technology that allows them to actually travel those distances so quickly?" Well, now we're adding a supposition that breaks the known laws of physics on top of our supposition that they were actually here in the VERY SHORT amount of time that humanity has had any presence in the universe. Yes, I know that there are theories that the laws of physics may allow for wormholes, etc. And I admit that we really don't know our asses from our elbows when it comes to this yet. However, the fact that we haven't found any signals from an intelligent life form in the even shorter amount of time that we've actually been looking shoudn't discourage us. We have to learn some pateince when dealing with signals that may take a hundred thousand years to get to us from their source.
And let's hope the aliens don't pick up 'Survivor' in the mean time and decide to euthanize us...
posted by:
Dave
Colorado
Advertisement
Advertisement
  • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

    Wed, August 17, 2005 - 2:36 PM
    Well put, Dave. Wouldn't it be funny/tragic if a highly evolved race actually thought "reality shows" were, in fact, real?

    As to visitation, another troubling factor is how exactly an alien race would pick us out of the millions of likely candidates in the galaxy.

    Crap, I'm getting lonely again...
    • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

      Wed, August 17, 2005 - 3:06 PM
      > Crap, I'm getting lonely again...

      Yep, this is indeed a pretty lonely universe for us, with no end in sight. If we made contact with an extraterrestrial society tomorrow and attempted communication in return, what might we end up receiving? It would most likely be primitive radio transmissions that we hear, since that would be the first thing to reach us and one of the only things we're actually listening for. What if they got ours first? Would they understand it at all? Would we understand theirs?
      If we've been sending out radio waves at the speed of light for a hundred years, that may only be a few dozen systems out of the billion (give or take) in our galaxy. A society would have to be 125,000 years ahead of us to guarantee that their radio waves would reach us. What if radio tranmission became obsolete in their society after a couple hundred years and we just plain missed the band of radio waves washing over us while we were bashing neanderthals with clubs?
      Yep, it's a lonely universe, but it may have a sense of humor after all...
      • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

        Wed, August 17, 2005 - 5:37 PM
        <<What if radio tranmission became obsolete in their society after a couple hundred years and we just plain missed the band of radio waves washing over us while we were bashing neanderthals with clubs?>>

        Exactly so. It's not only a distance thang, but a lucky timing thing as well.

        As others on this tribe have heard me boast, I have a good friend who works at JPL who brought up the very good point that astronomers are seeing gamma ray bursters on a weekly basis. That means that big chunks of galaxies get sterilized on a regular basis. Even high tech civilizations with interstellar travel would be hard pressed to outrun one. Plus, even if they did, they would be coming back to shattered, irradiated ruins of their home systems. More depression is in order. But I get your comment about the sense of humor.

        Have you read a book called "Where IS Everybody"?. It outlines in great detail about 40 theories relating to the Fermi Paradox.
        • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

          Wed, August 17, 2005 - 6:33 PM
          Nope, haven't read the book. I really ought to pick it up. Go-Go-Gadget Amazon.com!

          I've heard a few theories, like since we developed atmoic weapons shortly after radio, then a civilization capable of sending radio transmissions might shortly thereafter exterminate themselves. Who knows? I hope they're out there, but I doubt they're going to come knocking...
          • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

            Thu, August 18, 2005 - 7:17 AM
            I hope/believe someday we'll hear something but when you think of the endless possibilities of the ways to communicate it seems like such a small chance that we'll ever hear anything. Who know's, maybe we've missed something. We've only really been broadcasting, and listening for the past 65 years. That really means that if we were to hear a response from someone we've really only spread out 32 some light years (32 ly out 32 ly back) and as time increases so does the amount of time needed for a response. Say just now about 65 light years out a civilization started to pick up our signals. If they immediately responded it would be 65 years from now before we received their transmission. What if those other are 150 ly out? Our great great great grandchildren will probably be getting the responses, that is if they are even still listening to radiowaves that far in the future. I mean our advances in the last 65 years have been huge. Would any of you know morse code if you heard it?

            And as for other civ's randomly transmitting, well, maybe we just aren't looking in the right neighborhood, or the right way. What if they don't communicate by radiowaves?

            There's probably been/is/will be others out there. I think the timing issue is where we get hosed.
            • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

              Thu, August 18, 2005 - 5:14 PM
              Clearly, for us to even receive a signal, the older the civilization that broadcast it, the better chance we'll have of receiving it. But again, the problem is, if it's not tightbeamed directly as us (and why would it be? We may well be in an "unfashionable Western spiral arm of the Milky Way galaxy, after all), we may be basking in radio waves right this moment, without being able to know that they come from intelligent civilizations.

              I'm starting to think that any civilization that truly wishes to travel or communicate between the stars is going to have to cheat. Wormholes, interdimensional gateways, or whatever, are the only practical means, unless of course the average lifespan of an individual in these civilization is in the millions of years and they perceive time differently.
    • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

      Thu, August 18, 2005 - 7:50 PM
      Okay, so since we're all like-minded on the subject, I'm going to stir the pot a little and bring up the topic of supposed alien visitations to Earth right now. Moderator- Please tell me if this is too far off topic, I don't want to sully a perfectly good tribe by delving into Nasty Enquirer territory if it is inappropriate.
      So far everybody that has posted seems to agree that we do not have contact with aliens nor will we for the forseeable future. Explanations for the cultrural movement that alien visitation (and anal probing) has become?
      Do we just want to believe so badly? Is it our culture of science fiction movies driving our perceptions of the world? Something painful may indeed be happening to people that doesn't have an extra-terrestrial origin. The famed study (by Duke U. I think) where solenoids were pointed at the right temporal lobes of blindfolded peoples' brains. They reported feeling "like someone was standing there," they reported seeing lights, they even would report seeing oddly-shaped people. This may have something to do with the sensory deprivation along with the electromagnetic stimulus, but here we have something (as inadequate as it sounds) that explains this in a possible earthly manner. So now ask yourself, which is more likely? Human perception is wrong or math and physics are wrong... That's my take.
      Feel free to correct, comment, admonish, or otherwise post on this.
      • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

        Fri, August 19, 2005 - 11:42 AM
        I used to be a fairly hardcore believer in UFO's, and alien visitations. However, the more I studied in this field, and more importantly, the more people I met at UFO conventions, the less inclined I was to take the matter seriously.

        There are three books in this field that I still find fascinating. They are:

        "Above Top Secret" by Timothy Good - a big, dense compendium of sightings that could not be explained. Most of the sightings were either by "trained obeservers", or by large groups of people. Good is...well, very good at pointing out that 99% of sightings can indeed be explained by natural phenomenon, so the ones he bothers to put in his book are very intriguing indeed.

        "Passport to Magonia" by Jacques Vallee - This book compares motifs from ancient faerie abduction lore to modern UFO abduction lore, and comes up with a surprising amount of similiarities. Vallee's contention is that, if these beings are really visiting us, they may well have been here for our entire history, and are interdimensional travellers. This would solve our time and distance issues as well.

        "Yoshi can't remember the title", but it's a book by Stephen Greer, head of the "Disclosure Project". Mr. Greer has assembled quite an array of real people who claim to have worked with the government and/or private defense contractors on projects relating to back-engineering technology from crashed alien craft. They all have valid papers proving they are who they say they are. And they all want to testify in front of Congress as to both the veracity of their claims and the significance of what this means to our civilization. These are not wacked out people who claim they have been probed, but professional, rational folks who want to clear their consciences, or so they claim.

        That said, I still stick by the statement that incredible claims require incredible proof, and so far, I haven't seen the smoking gun.
        • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

          Sat, August 20, 2005 - 11:15 AM
          Yep no smoking gun yet but is that because there isn't one or is it being hidden? For various reasons either by our governments (you know protecting us from ourselves). The aliens themselves (if we're willing to nuke, mame and kill our own kind what would we do to them?).

          How would the world react? There's theories abound that things like Roswell, UFO sighting and even things like TV shows and movies are being put out to the public to sort of smoothly transition us into acceptance. What, 50% - 60% of people believe in ET's? What was it 100 years ago? Fewer people in 1905 probably believed we'd make it to the moon.

          And then there is the technology. If aliens made it here, the first thing we'd be trying to figure out is how'd they do it and can we have it. Current science says it's highly unlikely (too great a distances, too much energy required). But what if there is something we don't know about or haven't discovered yet like gravity or anti-gravity propulsion. Actually it's in the works (www.janes.com/aerospace/c...9_1_n.shtml) or at least being though about.

          And stuff about black programs, well, I used to work for one of those defense contractor company's. Freaky weird crazy stuff no joke. There was a section of the building with a 1ft. thick locked steel door, various security measures and 2, yes, 2 armed MP's standing guard at the door. What was in the room. Black ops stuff. I had one experience with the Black ops crew where I was asked to procure a part for them. I was given blueprints and volumes of detail. No one made the part and half the company's approached were like WTF is that? Supposedly it was a reverse engineered part. Reverse engineered part from what is the question? One guy I talked with who was heavily involved with Black ops for a while would often comment that mostly they were reverse engineering stuff. Parts given to them and explained what they were supposed to do yet the engineers had no idea what it was or how it worked and would oddly comment that the technology seemed "out of this world".

          Theres supposedly tons of info out there on research Einstein and a bunch of other big brains were working on crazy technology. There's stories like the Philladelphia experiment which supposedly had to do with interdimensional travel supposedly worked from alien technology.

          Anyway, now I'm probably getting to freaky x-filesish but...
          • Re: Visitation vs. Communication

            Sun, August 21, 2005 - 10:39 AM
            Hi tribe, just my two cents...
            I have no experience working on MIB projects but I did quite a bit of work on half-secret projects.

            My opinion is that in general human beings are too dumb to properly manage hi secrecy projects if more than 1 person is involved, especially if there is not a strong strong motivation (e.g.war) and if you do not keep them under lock and key

            Especially today, in such a mediatized world, everytime somebody gets hold of half a secret start looking for somebody to sell exclusive rights to, write a book, get a movie made...

            I am always very skeptical about cospiracy theories, people are probably too dumb to organize such sophisticated schemes and keep them up running... ;-)

            regarding reverse engineering, maybe they were reproducing secret stuff salvaged from wreked russian submarines...

Recent topics in "Fermi Paradox"